Friday, April 21, 2006

A Timely Story About Young Iranians

The much talked about young people of Iran are turning to opium out of frustration with the limited economic opportunities in the Islamic Republic.

Or so says today's Washington Post. The implication is that we should save these youngsters from the horrors of drug abuse.

I wonder if this initiative will lead to long lines at U.S. military recruiting stations.

Any takers?

No? I didn't think so.

While the world focuses on Iran's nuclear ambitions, Iranians focus on the unmet aspirations of the two-thirds of the population that is younger than 30. Nearly three decades after a revolution that swept aside a monarchist system grounded in privilege, the typical Iranian has seen average income shrink under a religious government that has cultivated an elite of its own atop a profoundly dysfunctional economy.

There are, however, intriguing hints that the U.S. policy on Iran's nuclear program may not fly--even among the outcast young:

Dissatisfaction also accounts for much of the public support for Iran's nuclear program, despite widespread disdain for the ruling mullahs. In a country where time has seemed to stand still for a quarter-century, the public associates nuclear energy with economic development.

This means that even if we succeed in fostering regime change in Iran, the people will still want to pursue a nuclear program.

Iran's firebrand president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is threatening to enact some of the populist energy policies that reliably arouse the ire of Washington regardless of which country contemplates such a step:

Ahmadinejad ... vowed to "put oil money on the sofre," the dining cloth that in an Iranian household is the equivalent of the kitchen table. Iran's petroleum reserves are the second largest of any OPEC country. And only Russia has more natural gas.

Sounds like Hugo Chavez.

Another nugget is found in this long article:

But great chunks of the income from oil already go to keeping public anger at bay. Iran will spend $25 billion this year to hold down the prices of flour, rice, even gasoline. With insufficient refining capacity of its own, Iran imports more gas than any nation except the United States.

This puts the lie to the American position that Iran--with all it's oil-- cannot be seeking nuclear energy with their reactor program.

But back to the young people, the ostensible reason for the Post article:

"Opium, yes. You can smell it in the evening," Shalde said of the drug many people in Iran -- more than in any other country in the world, according to U.N. figures -- use to fill days not filled by jobs.

The control of the worldwide opium trade may actually play a bigger role in American intentions toward Iran than conventionally assumed. And the angle is not to save the young (anywhere) from the pernicious poppy.

There are other diversions for the young folks:

"We only get hopeful when we smoke hashish," said one, smiling as he made do with spiced-apple tobacco. "Otherwise, there's no hope."

"I think ordinary people do love him and trust him (Ahmadinejad), especially with his position on the nuclear issue. He showed that he's a firm person.

"We believe that with nuclear power Iran will actually speed up development."

As he spoke, other young patrons chimed in, drawn by the novelty of a visiting American and the opportunity to be heard.

"I want to make one point clear," Mani Jalili announced, by way of introduction. "If Americans attack (my city), I will defend it."

This is not the dope talking--they were only smoking tobacco. These are the "America loving" young (and disaffected) Iranians, the ones who are too young to remember the revolution of 1979.

The U.S. is placing much of our strategic plans for Iran upon these young people rising up (with or without an American attack) and deposing the mullahs.

Something tells me that , if we attack, the young people of Iran will not be greeting us with candy and flowers.

4 Comments:

Blogger M1 said...

...the ol'd War on Drugs two-step. Hmm

No, I can't see this rousing the wonderbread rabble. It's got none of that Oprah-esque Taliban-stoning-of-chicks appeal.

It certainly won't enthuse the underfucked and overweight suburban soccer moms into screaming for bombs from the heavens as they did when it came to Afghanistan. (BTW, good work on that mindspectrum priming campaign Hillary!)

4/21/2006 10:59 AM  
Blogger Effwit said...

M1:

I agree that it isn't a sufficently inflammatory rallying cry. However, it would probably be enough to convince Hillary to support an air campaign.

We probably will see a more dramatic trigger for an attack.

Did you hear about a really interesting situation that occurred this week at a PA nuke plant?

Some are thinking it may be related to someone big trying to obtain material for a dirty nuke.

4/21/2006 11:34 AM  
Blogger M1 said...

Yeah, I saw that. It had me reflexiviely associating to those incidents of a few years ago with Israelis in U-Hauls prowling around U.S. nuclear facilities.

4/21/2006 1:56 PM  
Blogger Effwit said...

M1:

Yeah, those dodgy Israeli moving companies.

4/21/2006 2:46 PM  

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