Hersh: Lebanon Is Warm Up For Iran War
Investigative reporter Seymour Hersh says that the U.S. and Israel coordinated the air war against Hezbollah in Lebanon to destroy the Shiite militia's capability to respond to a U.S. attack against Iran.
The Bush Administration ... was closely involved in the planning of Israel's retaliatory attacks. President Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney were convinced, current and former intelligence and diplomatic officials told me, that a successful Israeli Air Force bombing campaign against Hezbollah's heavily fortified underground-missile and command-and-control complexes in Lebanon could ease Israel's security concerns and also serve as a prelude to a potential American pre-emptive attack to destroy Iran's nuclear installations, some of which are also buried deep underground. ...
According to a Middle East expert with knowledge of the current thinking of both the Israeli and the U.S. governments, Israel had devised a plan for attacking Hezbollah -- and shared it with Bush Administration officials -- well before the July 12th kidnappings. ...
A Pentagon consultant said that the Bush White House "has been agitating for some time to find a reason for a pre-emptive blow against Hezbollah." He added, "it was our intent to have Hezbollah diminished, and now we have someone else doing it." ...
Earlier this summer, before the Hezbollah kidnappings, the U.S. government consultant said, several Israeli officials visited Washington, separately, "to get a green light for the bombing operation and to find out how much the United States would bear." The consultant added, "Israel began with Cheney. It wanted to be sure that it had his support and the support of his office and the Middle East desk of the National Security Council." After that, "persuading Bush was never a problem, and Condi Rice was on board," the consultant said.
The initial plan, as outlined by the Israelis, called for a major bombing campaign in response to the next Hezbollah provocation, according to the Middle East expert with knowledge of U.S. and Israeli thinking. Israel believed that, by targeting Lebanon's infrastructure, including highways, fuel depots, and even the civilian runways at the main Beirut airport, it could persuade Lebanon's large Christian and Sunni populations to turn against Hezbollah, according to the former senior intelligence official...
The Israeli plan, according to the former senior intelligence official, was "the mirror image of what the United States has been planning for Iran." ...
Cheney's office supported the Israeli plan, as did Elliott Abrams, a deputy national-security adviser, according to several former and current officials. (A spokesman for the N.S.C. denied that Abrams had done so.) They believed that Israel should move quickly in its air war against Hezbollah. A former intelligence officer said, "We told Israel, 'Look, if you guys have to go, we're behind you all the way. But we think it should be sooner rather than later -- the longer you wait, the less time we have to evaluate and plan for Iran before Bush gets out of office.' " ...
The long-term Administration goal was to help set up a Sunni Arab coalition -- including countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt -- that would join the United States and Europe to pressure the ruling Shiite mullahs in Iran. "But the thought behind that plan was that Israel would defeat Hezbollah, not lose to it," the consultant with close ties to Israel said. ...
Nonetheless, some officers serving with the Joint Chiefs of Staff remain deeply concerned that the Administration will have a far more positive assessment of the air campaign than they should, the former senior intelligence official said. "There is no way that Rumsfeld and Cheney will draw the right conclusion about this," he said. "When the smoke clears, they'll say it was a success, and they'll draw reinforcement for their plan to attack Iran." ...
The crisis will really start at the end of August, the diplomat added, "when the Iranians" -- under a United Nations deadline to stop uranium enrichment -- "will say no."
The Bush Administration ... was closely involved in the planning of Israel's retaliatory attacks. President Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney were convinced, current and former intelligence and diplomatic officials told me, that a successful Israeli Air Force bombing campaign against Hezbollah's heavily fortified underground-missile and command-and-control complexes in Lebanon could ease Israel's security concerns and also serve as a prelude to a potential American pre-emptive attack to destroy Iran's nuclear installations, some of which are also buried deep underground. ...
According to a Middle East expert with knowledge of the current thinking of both the Israeli and the U.S. governments, Israel had devised a plan for attacking Hezbollah -- and shared it with Bush Administration officials -- well before the July 12th kidnappings. ...
A Pentagon consultant said that the Bush White House "has been agitating for some time to find a reason for a pre-emptive blow against Hezbollah." He added, "it was our intent to have Hezbollah diminished, and now we have someone else doing it." ...
Earlier this summer, before the Hezbollah kidnappings, the U.S. government consultant said, several Israeli officials visited Washington, separately, "to get a green light for the bombing operation and to find out how much the United States would bear." The consultant added, "Israel began with Cheney. It wanted to be sure that it had his support and the support of his office and the Middle East desk of the National Security Council." After that, "persuading Bush was never a problem, and Condi Rice was on board," the consultant said.
The initial plan, as outlined by the Israelis, called for a major bombing campaign in response to the next Hezbollah provocation, according to the Middle East expert with knowledge of U.S. and Israeli thinking. Israel believed that, by targeting Lebanon's infrastructure, including highways, fuel depots, and even the civilian runways at the main Beirut airport, it could persuade Lebanon's large Christian and Sunni populations to turn against Hezbollah, according to the former senior intelligence official...
The Israeli plan, according to the former senior intelligence official, was "the mirror image of what the United States has been planning for Iran." ...
Cheney's office supported the Israeli plan, as did Elliott Abrams, a deputy national-security adviser, according to several former and current officials. (A spokesman for the N.S.C. denied that Abrams had done so.) They believed that Israel should move quickly in its air war against Hezbollah. A former intelligence officer said, "We told Israel, 'Look, if you guys have to go, we're behind you all the way. But we think it should be sooner rather than later -- the longer you wait, the less time we have to evaluate and plan for Iran before Bush gets out of office.' " ...
The long-term Administration goal was to help set up a Sunni Arab coalition -- including countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt -- that would join the United States and Europe to pressure the ruling Shiite mullahs in Iran. "But the thought behind that plan was that Israel would defeat Hezbollah, not lose to it," the consultant with close ties to Israel said. ...
Nonetheless, some officers serving with the Joint Chiefs of Staff remain deeply concerned that the Administration will have a far more positive assessment of the air campaign than they should, the former senior intelligence official said. "There is no way that Rumsfeld and Cheney will draw the right conclusion about this," he said. "When the smoke clears, they'll say it was a success, and they'll draw reinforcement for their plan to attack Iran." ...
The crisis will really start at the end of August, the diplomat added, "when the Iranians" -- under a United Nations deadline to stop uranium enrichment -- "will say no."
posted by Effwit at 12:48 PM
4 Comments:
Why is it that America continues to spoil for a war with Iran despite all indications that it simply will not go as planned?
Sure they have superior airpower, superior military power, etc. But even if they do bomb Tehran back to the stoneage -- 7o million Iranians are simply never going to role over and let them have the country. Why don't they get this?
-- and as far as I'm concerned, this preoccupation with Iran getting nuclear capability is a red herring... say the U.S. did nuke Iran -- do they really think there will be no ramifications for them? The Pakistani's appear to be much more of a loose cannon, have nuclear capability and would likely not sit by if a muslim country was nuked -- and China and Russia wanting Iranian oil might be helpful as well...
It seems to me that Americans are sitting on billions of dollars worth of military equipment that they are just itching to use -- but like the old IBM mainframes -- that equipment is in someway now obsolete and "my way or the highway" type thinking just wont work anymore.
Dena
Dena:
Those in the U.S. government who are desirous of war with Iran have all sorts of nefarious motivations that are difficult, if not impossible to determine.
For instance, it is nigh futile to speculate whether these folks wish to gain access to Iran's oil, or instead to prevent Iran's oil from reaching the market--thus driving up the revenues from the supplies that Western "Big Oil" controls.
And you are right about the Iranian nuclear weapons issue being mainly a pretext for action.
Since we have recently proven unable to succeed with conventional warfare campaigns, the only ace-in-the-hole that the warmongers have are our nukes. As you know, some of the neo-cons want us to break the 60-year taboo against using nuclear weapons.
The line between conventional and nuclear weapons will be forever blurred if we use nukes in combat. Other nuclear powers would then feel no compulsion to restrain themselves after that.
I haven't read the entire Hersh article yet, but the excerpt here is quite interesting. And it's not too surprising to many of us who expected as much. There's no question that the Israelis acted with the U.S. government's tacit - or not so tacit, apparently - approval. Will these people never learn? They continue to lead us down the proverbial primrose path, and if nukes become involved at some point, then Katy bar the door.
They just don't seem to understand that these attacked nations are not going to greet us as liberators. Didn't they learn anything from Iraq? The Lebanese that they thought would go against Hezbollah, arguably, have turned toward Hezbollah more than ever, even among some of the Christian Lebanese who were bombed by the Israelis. Can anyone blame them? No.
Our leaders are effing crazy. There's no two ways about it.
DrewL:
You are absolutely right that Israel acts in concert with the U.S. They are loath to risk cutting off the largesse we send in their direction.
Many times American presidents have gotten on the horn and told Israeli leaders to modify actions which were causing us grief. The fact that this didn't happen in the Lebanon war was a big hint that we were on board with the program.
I think that a major reason that the neo-cons continue to believe that we will be greeted with roses as liberators is that they are fundamentally authoritarian in their worldview. This means that they naturally think that, when faced with a strong oppressor, people will embrace their conquerors.
This is because that is how they reflexively deal with the powerful.
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